Here’s When Bitcoin’s Bear Market Is Set to Start

Predicting the exact start of a bear market in Bitcoin is notoriously difficult, fraught with uncertainty and speculation. However, by analyzing recent price action, technical indicators, market sentiment, and fundamental factors, we can attempt to identify potential signals that might indicate the onset of a bearish trend. This analysis is crucial for investors and traders alike, allowing them to make informed decisions and manage risk effectively. This article will delve into a comprehensive overview of the current Bitcoin landscape as of May 18, 2025, to assess the likelihood of an impending bear market.

Bitcoin's Current Market Status

As of May 18, 2025, Bitcoin (BTC) is trading at $105,211, reflecting a 2.08% increase from the previous close. This price point is sourced from Binance, a leading cryptocurrency exchange, providing a real-time perspective on Bitcoin’s value. The crypto market is characterized by rapid fluctuations, and it's imperative to consider the current price action within the broader context of recent trends and market sentiment.

Source: Binance BTC/USDT

Stock market information for Bitcoin (BTC)

- Bitcoin is a crypto in the CRYPTO market.
- The price is 105211.0 USD currently with a change of 2140.00 USD (0.02%) from the previous close.
- The intraday high is 105301.0 USD and the intraday low is 102855.0 USD.

Recent analyses highlight Bitcoin's resilience amid market skepticism. A Reuters report notes that as U.S. markets question economic policies, Bitcoin has gained 15% in April, nearing the $100,000 mark, outperforming major indices like the S&P 500 and Nasdaq. (reuters.com)

Additionally, institutional investors are adjusting their positions in Bitcoin ETFs. In Q1 2025, some hedge funds reduced holdings due to decreased profitability in basis trades, while entities like Abu Dhabi’s Mubadala sovereign wealth fund increased their stakes, indicating sustained interest in Bitcoin. (reuters.com)

These developments suggest a growing confidence in Bitcoin as a hedge against traditional market uncertainties.

Recent Price Action and Influencing Events

Bitcoin has experienced significant volatility in recent months. After a period of consolidation near the $70,000 range, the price surged to test the $100,000 resistance level. This upward momentum was fueled by several factors, including increased institutional adoption, positive regulatory signals, and growing awareness of Bitcoin as a hedge against inflation. Specifically, the approval and subsequent launch of Bitcoin ETFs have been instrumental in attracting institutional capital, thereby boosting demand and pushing prices higher. The anticipation surrounding the halving event, which occurred in April 2024, also played a significant role, as it historically leads to supply constraints and price appreciation.

However, this upward trend has not been without its setbacks. Several periods of correction have occurred, driven by profit-taking activities, regulatory concerns, and broader macroeconomic factors. For instance, comments from various government officials regarding potential restrictions on cryptocurrency trading have often led to temporary price declines. Furthermore, fluctuations in the traditional financial markets, such as changes in interest rates or geopolitical events, can also impact Bitcoin’s price, as investors reallocate their portfolios based on perceived risk and return.

A notable event influencing recent price action was the announcement of a major upgrade to the Bitcoin network, which aimed to improve scalability and transaction efficiency. This news initially triggered a positive response, but the subsequent implementation of the upgrade was met with some challenges, leading to short-term uncertainty and price volatility. Additionally, reports of increased mining difficulty and energy consumption have raised environmental concerns, prompting some investors to reconsider their positions.

Looking at the past few weeks, Bitcoin has demonstrated a pattern of testing resistance levels, followed by periods of consolidation. This suggests that while there is strong buying interest, there is also significant selling pressure at higher price points. The ongoing battle between bulls and bears is evident in the price charts, making it essential to analyze technical patterns to gain a clearer understanding of potential future movements.

Comments From Crypto Influencers

Michael Saylor: “Bitcoin is digital property, and it's the only scarce asset in the digital age. Holding Bitcoin is like owning land in cyberspace, and it's only going to become more valuable over time.”

Raoul Pal: “The macroeconomic environment is incredibly favorable for Bitcoin. With central banks printing money and inflation on the rise, Bitcoin is the ultimate store of value.”

Anthony Pompliano: “Bitcoin is not just a technology; it's a revolution. It's going to disrupt every industry, and it's only a matter of time before everyone realizes its potential.”

Technical Chart Patterns

Analyzing technical chart patterns is crucial for identifying potential trends and reversal points. Several patterns are currently forming or have recently been broken on Bitcoin's price charts, providing valuable insights into the market's direction.

Ascending Triangle

An ascending triangle is a bullish pattern characterized by a flat upper trendline (resistance) and a rising lower trendline (support). This pattern suggests that buyers are becoming more aggressive, pushing the price higher with each successive attempt. If Bitcoin breaks above the $100,000 resistance level, it could signal a continuation of the bullish trend, potentially leading to new all-time highs. However, a failure to break above this level could result in a pullback to the lower support trendline.

Head and Shoulders Pattern

A head and shoulders pattern is a bearish reversal pattern that typically forms after an uptrend. It consists of a left shoulder, a head (higher peak), and a right shoulder, followed by a neckline. If Bitcoin were to form a clear head and shoulders pattern, with a break below the neckline, it would signal a potential trend reversal and the start of a bear market. Traders often look for confirmation of this pattern with increased trading volume during the breakdown.

Double Top Pattern

A double top pattern is another bearish reversal pattern that occurs when the price attempts to break through a resistance level twice but fails. This pattern indicates that the bulls are losing momentum and that sellers are taking control. If Bitcoin forms a double top at the $100,000 level, it would suggest a strong resistance point and increase the likelihood of a price decline. Traders typically watch for a break below the neckline (the low between the two peaks) to confirm the pattern.

Bull Flag Pattern

A bull flag is a short-term bullish continuation pattern that forms after a significant price increase. It is characterized by a period of consolidation within a flag-like shape, followed by a breakout in the direction of the previous trend. If Bitcoin forms a bull flag after its recent surge, a breakout above the upper trendline of the flag could signal a continuation of the upward momentum.

Bear Flag Pattern

A bear flag is the opposite of a bull flag and indicates a short-term bearish continuation. It forms after a significant price decrease, followed by a consolidation period within a flag-like shape. If Bitcoin experiences a price decline and forms a bear flag, a breakout below the lower trendline of the flag could signal further downside movement.

By carefully monitoring these technical chart patterns, traders can gain valuable insights into potential price movements and make informed trading decisions. However, it's important to note that these patterns are not always reliable and should be used in conjunction with other technical indicators and fundamental analysis.

Key Support and Resistance Levels

Identifying key support and resistance levels is fundamental to understanding potential price movements. These levels represent areas where buying or selling pressure is expected to be strong, influencing the direction of the price.

Resistance Levels

$105,000 - $110,000: This range represents a significant psychological barrier. A sustained break above this level could trigger a new wave of buying, potentially pushing Bitcoin to new all-time highs.
$120,000: This level represents a major resistance point based on Fibonacci extensions and historical price projections. Breaking this level would require substantial buying pressure and strong market sentiment.

Support Levels

$100,000: This level is a crucial psychological support. Holding above this level would suggest that the bullish trend remains intact.
$90,000 - $95,000: This range represents a strong support zone based on previous consolidation periods and moving averages. A drop below this level could indicate a weakening of the bullish momentum.
$80,000: This level is a major support zone based on long-term moving averages and Fibonacci retracement levels. A break below this level could signal a significant trend reversal and the start of a bear market.

Traders often use these support and resistance levels to set entry and exit points for their trades. A break above a resistance level is typically seen as a bullish signal, while a break below a support level is seen as a bearish signal.

Technical Indicator Analysis

Technical indicators provide valuable insights into the strength and direction of trends, momentum, and potential overbought or oversold conditions. Analyzing several key indicators can help traders make more informed decisions.

Moving Averages

Moving averages smooth out price data over a specific period, helping to identify the underlying trend. Common moving averages include the 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day moving averages. The relationship between these moving averages can provide important signals.

50-day Moving Average: Currently, the 50-day moving average is trending upwards and is above the 200-day moving average, indicating a bullish trend. However, if the price falls below the 50-day moving average, it could signal a weakening of the upward momentum.
200-day Moving Average: The 200-day moving average is a long-term indicator that is often used to determine the overall trend. As long as the price remains above the 200-day moving average, the long-term trend is considered to be bullish. However, a break below this level could signal a major trend reversal.

Crossovers between moving averages can also provide important signals. For example, a golden cross (when the 50-day moving average crosses above the 200-day moving average) is considered a bullish signal, while a death cross (when the 50-day moving average crosses below the 200-day moving average) is considered a bearish signal.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is a momentum oscillator that measures the speed and change of price movements. It ranges from 0 to 100, with readings above 70 indicating overbought conditions and readings below 30 indicating oversold conditions.

Currently, the RSI for Bitcoin is around 65, suggesting that the market is neither overbought nor oversold. However, if the RSI were to rise above 70, it could indicate that the market is becoming overextended and that a correction is likely. Conversely, if the RSI were to fall below 30, it could indicate that the market is oversold and that a bounce is likely.

Divergences between the RSI and the price can also provide important signals. For example, if the price is making new highs but the RSI is making lower highs, it could indicate a weakening of the upward momentum and a potential trend reversal.

MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence)

The MACD is a trend-following momentum indicator that shows the relationship between two moving averages of a security's price. It consists of the MACD line, the signal line, and the histogram. Crossovers between the MACD line and the signal line can provide signals about trend direction.

Currently, the MACD line is above the signal line, indicating a bullish trend. However, if the MACD line were to cross below the signal line, it could signal a potential trend reversal. The histogram can also provide insights into the strength of the trend. If the histogram is rising, it indicates that the bullish momentum is increasing. Conversely, if the histogram is falling, it indicates that the bullish momentum is weakening.

Trading Volume

Trading volume represents the number of shares or contracts traded during a specific period. It is an important indicator of market activity and can confirm the strength of price movements.

Increasing trading volume during a price increase suggests that the bullish trend is strong and that there is significant buying interest. Conversely, increasing trading volume during a price decrease suggests that the bearish trend is strong and that there is significant selling pressure. Low trading volume during a price movement suggests that the trend is weak and may not be sustainable.

Analyzing volume patterns in conjunction with price movements can provide valuable insights into the market's direction.

Fibonacci Retracement Levels

Fibonacci retracement levels are horizontal lines that indicate potential support and resistance levels based on Fibonacci ratios. These levels are calculated by drawing a trendline between two significant price points (e.g., a high and a low) and then dividing the vertical distance by the Fibonacci ratios (23.6%, 38.2%, 50%, 61.8%, and 100%).

Traders often use these levels to identify potential entry and exit points for their trades. For example, if the price is retracing after a significant uptrend, traders may look to buy near the 38.2% or 61.8% Fibonacci retracement levels, expecting the price to bounce from these levels and continue its upward trend.

Currently, the key Fibonacci retracement levels for Bitcoin are:
23.6%: $102,500
38.2%: $97,800
50%: $95,000
61.8%: $92,200

These levels can act as potential support and resistance zones, influencing the price movement of Bitcoin.

Current Market Sentiment and Fundamental Factors

Market sentiment plays a crucial role in driving price movements. Positive sentiment can lead to increased buying pressure and higher prices, while negative sentiment can lead to increased selling pressure and lower prices. Several fundamental factors can influence market sentiment, including network upgrades, adoption news, regulatory developments, competitor performance, and broader market trends.

Network Upgrades

Successful network upgrades can improve the scalability, security, and functionality of Bitcoin, leading to increased adoption and positive market sentiment. However, failed or controversial upgrades can lead to uncertainty and negative sentiment.

The recent implementation of a major upgrade to the Bitcoin network, aimed at improving transaction efficiency, initially triggered a positive response. However, subsequent challenges and delays in the implementation process have led to some uncertainty and price volatility. Investors are closely monitoring the performance of the upgraded network to assess its long-term impact.

Adoption News

Announcements of increased institutional or mainstream adoption of Bitcoin can significantly boost market sentiment. For example, news of major corporations adding Bitcoin to their balance sheets or accepting Bitcoin as a form of payment can lead to increased buying pressure and higher prices.

Recent reports of institutional investors increasing their holdings of Bitcoin ETFs and sovereign wealth funds allocating capital to Bitcoin have contributed to positive market sentiment. These developments suggest a growing confidence in Bitcoin as a legitimate asset class.

Regulatory Developments

Regulatory developments can have a significant impact on market sentiment. Positive regulatory signals, such as the approval of Bitcoin ETFs or the clarification of cryptocurrency regulations, can boost investor confidence. Conversely, negative regulatory signals, such as the imposition of strict restrictions on cryptocurrency trading or the banning of Bitcoin, can lead to increased selling pressure and lower prices.

Recent comments from various government officials regarding potential regulations on cryptocurrency trading have led to some uncertainty and price volatility. Investors are closely monitoring regulatory developments to assess their potential impact on the Bitcoin market.

Competitor Performance

The performance of other cryptocurrencies and blockchain projects can also influence market sentiment. If competing cryptocurrencies are experiencing significant growth or innovation, it could lead to decreased interest in Bitcoin. Conversely, if Bitcoin is outperforming its competitors, it could lead to increased buying pressure and higher prices.

The recent surge in the price of Ethereum and other altcoins has led to some speculation that Bitcoin's dominance is waning. However, Bitcoin remains the largest and most well-established cryptocurrency, and its strong brand recognition and network effect continue to attract investors.

Broader Market Trends

Broader market trends, such as changes in interest rates, inflation rates, and geopolitical events, can also impact market sentiment. For example, rising inflation rates can lead to increased interest in Bitcoin as a hedge against inflation. Conversely, rising interest rates can lead to decreased interest in Bitcoin as investors shift their capital to traditional assets.

The current macroeconomic environment, characterized by rising inflation rates and geopolitical uncertainty, has contributed to increased interest in Bitcoin as a safe-haven asset.

Potential Trading Strategies

Based on the current technical and fundamental outlook, traders may consider the following strategies:

Long Position (Buy)

Traders who believe that the bullish trend will continue may consider taking a long position (buying Bitcoin) near key support levels, such as $100,000 or the 50-day moving average. They would set a stop-loss order below the support level to limit potential losses and a target price above the resistance level of $105,000 - $110,000.

Short Position (Sell)

Traders who believe that the market is overbought or that a trend reversal is likely may consider taking a short position (selling Bitcoin) near key resistance levels, such as $105,000 - $110,000. They would set a stop-loss order above the resistance level to limit potential losses and a target price below the support level of $100,000.

Range Trading

Traders who believe that the price will remain within a specific range may consider using a range trading strategy. This involves buying Bitcoin near the lower end of the range and selling it near the upper end of the range. They would set stop-loss orders outside of the range to limit potential losses.

Breakout Trading

Traders who believe that the price will break out of a consolidation pattern may consider using a breakout trading strategy. This involves buying Bitcoin when it breaks above a resistance level or selling it when it breaks below a support level. They would set stop-loss orders near the breakout point to limit potential losses.

Dollar-Cost Averaging

Dollar-cost averaging involves investing a fixed amount of money at regular intervals, regardless of the price. This strategy can help to reduce the impact of volatility and can be a good option for long-term investors.

Short-Term Price Analysis and Targets

Based on the current technical setup and market conditions, here's a short-term price analysis for Bitcoin:

Bullish Scenario

If Bitcoin can break above the $105,000 - $110,000 resistance level with strong volume, the next target would be $120,000. A sustained break above this level could lead to new all-time highs. Support would be found at $100,000 and then $95,000.

Bearish Scenario

If Bitcoin fails to break above the $105,000 - $110,000 resistance level and instead breaks below the $100,000 support level, the next target would be $90,000 - $95,000. A sustained break below this level could signal a significant trend reversal and the start of a bear market. Resistance would be found at $105,000 and $110,000.

These targets are based on current market conditions and may change rapidly. It's important to monitor the price action closely and adjust your strategy accordingly.

YouTube Video Analysis

Here are two relevant YouTube videos offering price analysis for Bitcoin:

Video 1: Crypto Market Crash: HUGE Warning for Investors! | Shocking Bitcoin & Ethereum Price Prediction

Crypto Market Crash: HUGE Warning for Investors! | Shocking Bitcoin & Ethereum Price Prediction

This video discusses potential risks and warning signs in the crypto market, focusing on factors that could lead to a market crash. It provides insights into potential price corrections and offers a risk assessment for investors in Bitcoin and Ethereum.

Video 2: You Just need 0.1 Bitcoin to be a Millionaire: Michael Saylor

You Just need 0.1 Bitcoin to be a Millionaire: Michael Saylor

This video features Michael Saylor discussing the long-term potential of Bitcoin and its potential to make individuals millionaires. It covers the scarcity and increasing adoption of Bitcoin as key factors driving its future value.

Conclusion

Predicting the start of a Bitcoin bear market is a complex endeavor that requires a comprehensive understanding of technical analysis, fundamental factors, and market sentiment. As of May 18, 2025, Bitcoin is trading at $105,211, exhibiting a mix of bullish and bearish signals. The presence of both bullish and bearish chart patterns, combined with fluctuating market sentiment and evolving regulatory landscapes, highlights the inherent uncertainty and risk associated with cryptocurrency trading.

While technical indicators like moving averages and RSI suggest potential overbought conditions, strong support levels and positive adoption trends provide some reassurance. Traders are advised to monitor key support and resistance levels closely and use appropriate risk management techniques, such as setting stop-loss orders and diversifying their portfolios. Furthermore, staying informed about relevant news, regulatory developments, and broader market trends is essential for making informed decisions.

Ultimately, cryptocurrency trading involves significant risk, and past performance is not indicative of future results. Investors should conduct thorough independent research and seek advice from qualified financial professionals before making any investment decisions. The information provided in this article is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice.